Let’s assume a fictitious scenario: the positions that the U.S. armed forces have taken on the border with Mexico and in the waters of the Gulf of Mexico and the Pacific, are not to threaten, pressure or monitor the cartels. Nor are they for skirmishes or in-and-out strikes against any cartel. The strategic positioning of these forces is for an invasion.
If this were so, then references to the national anthem would be more rhetorical. A call for national unity, as in the times of Luis Echevarría Álvarez and José López Portillo.
Still with the assumption, then it would be expected that the bad governments would start preparations: the Military Draft would be activated and the civilian population would be instructed in the handling of firearms, construction of defenses, uses of shelter and cover, knowledge of the terrain, and chain of command. Of course, for this to happen, the civilian population would have to be provided with weapons, however rudimentary they may be. And the armed forces would reorient their actions to defense preparedness.
The proof that this is unthinkable for the governments is that the so-called national guard law just approved is going precisely in the opposite direction. The entire structure and strategy of the armed forces in Mexico would be, in military terms, not for internal control, but for defense against a foreign attack. And the armies would not be designing, building and administering the mega-projects of the officialist propaganda of the 4T.
Let’s suppose that Mr. Trump is not content to bend Mexico with tariffs, selective border closures, and trade and financial measures. Suppose Trump is someone eager to be noticed, to “go down in history” (sound familiar?). Let’s assume that he is not interested in a quiet and discreet domination of his target, and that he needs to show off and thinks nothing better than guns to do so. Let’s suppose that Trump is a “bully” who not only needs to humiliate his target, he needs to be seen, that this cowardly action “serves as a lesson.” Sure, he’s not smart, but he’s got his gun locked and loaded.
What would he count on in his favor?
An essential point of an invasion is to have a casus belli, a motive for the war.
Eduardo Ramirez Aguilar, who claims to govern the southeastern Mexican state of Chiapas, has already given the gringos a guideline to follow in this hypothetical situation. His local armed forces momentarily invaded neighboring Guatemala and he immediately justified the blunder by accusing that government… of complicity and of protecting organized crime (the same thing the gringos say about Mexico). Of course, he got a slap in the face from the center, but the wrong was and is done.
With its new prerogative, the military, instead of spying on those who criticize and oppose the 4T, would gather information on the ground and on the military capabilities of the likely aggressor.
For its part, the aggressor would gather the necessary information about the target of the invasion. And, as we have seen, information on the character of the enemy, his psychology, his behavior would weigh more heavily.
Another element to consider in this supposed invasion would be whether it has local support in the invaded territory.
Because, unlike in Ukraine and Palestine, where a Juan Guaidó did not appear -or has not appeared yet-, as in Venezuela, in Mexico there are those who sigh and aspire to be part of the American Union.
The ultra right (also known as “opposition”) wants to be noticed. The fuss they make seven days a week is not aimed at the voter. The latter is already campaigning for the ruling party with the payment of the increasingly meager social support, when it comes to reaching the recipient.
The ruling party is wrong in celebrating that the hysteria of the right wing does not produce any appreciable effect on what matters to it: the votes.
The ultra-right is not throwing a tantrum and kicking its feet so that the people of Mexico will look at it. It is so that in “the brutal and turbulent north” they will be taken into account.
This sector, although small in numbers, is quite “loud” in the media. However, it would have at least two problems:
One is when to expose themselves for what they are. And when they say, in their after-dinner conversations, “Mexico will not be Venezuela,” they do it knowing they will not show themselves until the flag of the stripes and murky stars flies over the old Palacio de Cortés. “We will not be Juan Guaidó, who stayed waiting for the Marines to land,” they say to themselves.
But, two, the biggest problem they have would be to decide who would be the one to receive the invader as host. And in their eagerness to take the lead, they would reveal themselves: Alito? Anaya? Salinas Pliego? A triumvirate? The latter has a classic charm.
In general, the 4T currently owes a lot to the ultra-right. Its media belches give it internal cohesion, jingoistic discourse and ammunition for the mornings and the like-minded pencil pushers.
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And in this, the look into the past, the ultra-right coincides with the ruling party (National Regeneration Movement Party, the Green Ecologist Party and the Workers’ Party -the 3 with the paradox in their names-).
Again and again, in the school of cadres of these parties, that is, in the “mañaneras” (morning press conference), it is repeated that the pre-Hispanic past was splendorous (in reality, they refer to their adoration for the Aztec empire -that is what it was, an empire-). Which is why they rewrite history to suit their own agenda.
While in the ultra-right they would swoon to see the U.S. army marching on Reforma, in the ruling party some would dream of the Russian army, others of the Chinese army, and, well, the PT would long for the arrival of the army of… North Korea!
In the ultra-right and the ruling party, the dilemma would be who would be at the top of the pyramid. A change at the top of the pyramid or a change of pyramid, then.
In this hypothetical situation, can you imagine the heroes of the 4T wielding a 5.56 mm caliber FX-05 Xiuhcoatl (AK-47 Fire Serpent)? Do you imagine them facing the invader’s bullets with their heroic chests? Or do you imagine them running for cover? Oh, oh, in this hypothetical scenario there is nowhere to go. Unless they change sides….
Right, you’re right: good thing that’s not going to happen! There is nothing on the horizon to suggest anything like that. It’s just the Captain’s desire to make a nuisance of himself and ruin the meal.
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If you look at the political class, this country called Mexico is a country of many lies. Many bosses – male and female. Too many generals, not enough troops. Each one with his or her own war to climb the pyramid. Their calls for national unity are useless because they cannot even unite their own party organization.
In addition: corruption, inefficiency and inability (for example, in the face of floods and droughts), refried demagogy, window dressing indigenism, “independent” voices for hire: freelancers and sicarios in the morning, the experts’ columns, the institutionalization of cheating (because the cheat sheet is an old school trick).
Meanwhile, as a sign of change, the country goes from being a clandestine cemetery to a zone of disappearances. And it is celebrated as progress: “violent deaths have decreased”, although now disappearances are increasing. The No Place like the homeland with biometric CURP(Unique Population Registry Code).
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Questions:
1.- So what was to be planted was corn and beans and not marketable saplings?1
2.- Consequently, since the government recognizes the destruction of nature with the Mayan Train (“we are not going to cut down a single tree,” said the Supreme Court), and in accordance with the foreign policy of demanding apologies, are they going to apologize to the people of “Sélvame del Tren” for the insults, harassment and pressure, and recognize that they were right in their denunciations? And to the affected native communities? 2
3. Ah, so it was not true that they put an end to the so-called huachicol? 3
4.- Does the current situation mean that the policy of “hugs and not punches” is pretty much over and done with?
5. So the “good” Salinas (Ricardo Salinas Pliego) is not so good, and it was a mistake to finance him with the administration of the welfare programs in the first years of the last six-year term? Now the ‘bad’ Salinas (Carlos Salinas de Gortari) will become a respected “Mr.” Salinas? 4
6.- Why is there time, disposition and “good will” to receive the paradoxical Carlos Slim, the gringo Secretary of State and the big businessmen (all beautiful people, listen), but not to receive the CNTE and the searching mothers? Because they are ugly? Because they are “eat-when-there-is-and-when-there-isn’t-they don’t”? Ah, because they are at the bottom of the pyramid?
7.- By accusing the ineffable Alfonso Romo 5 of money laundering is the gringo government demonstrating that it has learned from organized crime? Like warning Clara Brugada6 not to step out of line by murdering two of her collaborators? Or for whom is the warning?
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But it’s not all the disfigurement of the national and international political class up there.
Below…
There are those who seek and, although late, do not give up, do not sell out and do not give in.
There are those who do not look up, but look in the mirror.
There are those who, seeing themselves in others, who find themselves.
Because “rebelliousness is born and grows all over the planet, refusing to accept the limits of schemes, rules, laws and precepts. Because there are not only two genders, nor seven colors, nor are there four cardinal points, nor is the world one” (Semillero Comandanta Ramona, August 9, 2018).
From the mountains of the Mexican Southeast.
The Captain.
Mexico, now in July of 2025.
Original text published in Enlace Zapatista on July 2nd, 2025.
Translation by Schools for Chiapas.
Footnotes
- Refers to the government’s Sembrando Vida program, a program that supposedly works on Reforestation and environmental restoration: planting and caring for native trees on degraded lands; and Rural poverty alleviation: providing a monthly income (~5,000 pesos) and technical assistance to farmers to promote sustainable agroforestry and agricultural practices. The Sembrando Vida program, however, in its planning as well as its execution, is not the benevolent program that it would seem.
- More on the Tren Maya here. https://time.com/6245748/maya-train-tulum-yucatan-indigenous-people-land
- Huachicol is a colloquial Mexican term that refers to stolen fuel—usually gasoline or diesel—taken illegally from Pemex pipelines (Mexico’s state-owned oil company). It also refers to the act of fuel theft itself and those involved in it (huachicoleros).
- Ricardo Salinas Pliego is one of Mexico’s richest man. He is the owner of Grupo Salinas, which includes: TV Azteca – Mexico’s second-largest television network, Banco Azteca – a major bank serving low-income and working-class Mexicans, and Elektra . Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) developed a close and favorable relationship with Salinas Pliego during his administration (2018–2024). Banco Azteca was chosen to help distribute funds for AMLO’s flagship social programs, like “Sembrando Vida” and pensions for seniors.
- Alfronso Romo is the owner of Vector Casa de Bolsa, the largest fund management company in Latin America. Vector is one of three banks named for sanctions by the Trump administration accused of money laundering
- The Mayor of Mexico City’s personal secretary and close advisor were killed by gunmen in broad daylight on the streets of Mexico City on May 20th, 2025.