After six months of brutal fighting and the withdrawal of the Israeli army from the southern Gaza city of Khan Yunis, multiple Israeli and western commentators have argued that Hamas is winning the war and making military history in the process.
Sir Tom Phillips, a former British diplomat who served as Ambassador to Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, wrote on 9 April in Haaretz that Hamas had succeeded in its objective of “obtaining the release of as many Palestinians held in Israeli prisons as possible, and of re-asserting themselves as a force to be reckoned with.”
He added that Hamas had survived “the IDF onslaught for longer than any war Israel has ever fought” and in “doing so, they have thoroughly dented Israel’s much vaunted deterrent status. In brief, and with daunting potential long-term consequences for Israel, the IDF no longer looks invincible.”
Hamas has blocked a potential normalization deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel, which looked inevitable before the war began on 7 October, and put the Palestinian issue “back squarely on the international map” after years of the Palestinian Authority (PA) failing to do so.
A final victory for Hamas, Phillip notes, is the “head-spinning speed of Israel’s post-October 7 delegitimization in the eyes of many in the world.”
On 8 April, Israeli journalist Amos Harel similarly wrote in Haaretz that Israel’s primary goals in Khan Yunis “haven’t been achieved.”
Following the withdrawal of the 98th Division from the southern Gaza city, Harel noted that the Israeli army’s “two goals were the capture of top Hamas officials in Gaza and the rescue of the Israeli captives currently held by the Palestinian Resistance in Gaza.”
“The public should be told the truth: The enormous death and destruction the IDF is leaving behind in Gaza, alongside quite a few losses on our side, aren’t currently bringing us any closer to achieving the war’s goals,” he concluded.
In an analysis in Yedioth Ahronoth, Israeli political analyst Nadav Eyal explained that Israel had wished to restore its power of deterrence, eliminate Hamas, and free the captives held by Hamas in Gaza. But none of these objectives have been achieved.
“Israel’s failure is not based on presenting the goals of the war – which were fully supported by all Western countries. The failure lies entirely in the execution,” Eyal wrote, adding that “war is not won just by killing. A complementary political act is needed.”
The first failure, according to the report, was “the civilian suffering in Gaza.”
“Those who want to overthrow the rule of Hamas in Gaza do not conduct a Roman-style revenge campaign, carry out a protective wall or retaliatory action as if it were the 1950s.”
The Israeli commentator also blamed Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu for his attitude towards Washington. “Netanyahu’s public and evil confrontation with the Biden administration only emphasized Israel’s weakness,” he said.
Eyal also noted that Israel had become isolated in the international community and that even its allies in Washington and Brussels were beginning to turn against it.
“Not only has (Israel) lost support in most of the West, and is very close to an arms embargo from Europe, even among its great ally, the tectonic plates are in motion.”
On 27 March, Israeli intelligence officials also noted the change in Washington. They told The Telegraph that the Israeli government’s stated goal to “eradicate Hamas” in the Gaza Strip has become unachievable after the US “turned its back” on Tel Aviv by abstaining during a UN Security Council (UNSC) vote earlier in the week.
“If you’d asked me this a month ago, I would definitely say yes [we can eliminate Hamas] because, at that time, the Americans were backing Israel,” an Israeli intelligence official told the British daily, reportedly suggesting this assessment “had now changed.”
“The US doesn’t support going into Rafah, which they did before, so the cards right now are not good, meaning Israel has to do something dramatic and drastic to change the momentum and climate,” the source added, highlighting that “pressure is mounting on Israel to reach some sort of a deal, which means Hamas could survive. Both Hamas and the Iranians are playing on that.”
According to the official, the belief inside the Israeli security apparatus is that Hamas is “focused on surviving until the summer,” when the US election campaign will go into full gear.
Speaking on the Turkish channel Haber Global, military analyst and retired colonel Eray Gucuer also suggested Hamas is winning the war while discussing the Israeli withdrawal from Khan Yunis ahead of a presumed assault on Rafah.
“If the Israeli army really is in a situation where it could not attack Rafah except by withdrawing its brigade from Khan Yunis, this means that it effectively lost the ground war.”
“Israel, in this war, almost completely destroyed Gaza and killed thousands of civilians. However, the Qassam Brigades still exist. Until this moment, it has military superiority on the ground … no one with military experience can hide his admiration for the amazing tactics adopted by Al-Qassam… Indeed, they are writing history.”
“Imagine, since the beginning of the war in Gaza and until today, we still hear about Beit Hanoun and Ben Lahia, Al-Nasr neighborhood, and Al-Zaytoun neighborhood. Why? Because the Qassam operatives invented a tactic for the first time in my life that I have seen in the history of guerrilla wars,” he concluded.
source: The Cradle