Erdoğan’s Dream was Shattered by the Guerrillas

In one of his numerous statements, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan used the phrase: ‘We are waging the biggest fight against terrorism in the history of the Republic.’ This sentence was also an admission that the Turkish state is waging a gigantic war against the Kurdistan Freedom Guerrillas. Over the last four years, the state has been mobilised with all its institutions and has thrown itself into this war with every fibre of its being. At the same time, the state is trying to pretend that everything is under control and that it is carrying out very successful operations. It is trying to make this gigantic war appear normal. As the regime cannot declare absolute victory without having fully achieved its goal, it is trying to influence public perception as much as possible. The special war media and psychological warfare play a decisive role in this. Completely false and manipulative news is used to keep the racist and fascist masses constantly on the move, sometimes by making the extent of the war invisible and sometimes by officially expressing its importance.

There is no doubt that this method has met with a certain degree of acceptance so far, but the longer the war goes on, the more society feels its devastating consequences. As a result, the state’s narrative and actions are no longer as accepted as they used to be. Furthermore, it is not possible for the state to succeed with its control of discourse when there is a force like the Kurdistan Freedom Guerrilla that does not hesitate to make the truth unvarnished public at any time.

If you look at the official statements from 2021 to today, you can easily see how desperately the state is constantly contradicting itself. What was said yesterday is the opposite of what is being said today. Each of the key state institutions has become a propaganda centre. While the institutions of the state act in this way, their leaders are in a competitive struggle to grab their share. Erdoğan had already said once or twice before that ‘we are waging the biggest war against terrorism in the history of the republic’. The defence minister must have told himself that it was him who was waging this war, and so he raised the bar even higher. When he visited the border on the occasion of the Ramadan Feast, he declared: ‘The Turkish armed forces have carried out the most intensive and effective activities since our war of independence.’

The dream of a ‘new Atatürk’
In 2015, the Turkish state put a ‘decomposition plan’ into practice. A new regime based on new alliances began to build the second century of the Republic of Turkey on the annihilation and denial of the Kurdish people. Erdoğan, as the founding leader of this regime, began to dream of becoming the second Atatürk. For this to happen, there had to be a second ‘war of independence or liberation’. Since such a war could not be waged against a state, a global or regional power, the Kurdish people, who had already been massacred and systematically murdered by the Turkish regimes for a century, were chosen as the ideal enemy. Under this motto, the construction of the fascist regime that exists today was begun and all the country’s resources were mobilised for war.

Erdoğan planned to announce his final victory on the 100th anniversary of the Republic with a grand military parade, as the victorious leader who raised the flag in Qandil and hammered the last nail into the Kurds’ coffin. To do this, he would have had to advance to Qandil by October 2023, with the active support of NATO. That was Erdoğan’s ‘war of independence’. By recalling the important turning points of this war, we will analyse how it began and how it is currently being fought.

The defeat of Gare and the consequences

Hulusi Akar, the Minister of Defence at the time, declared that the offensive launched at the beginning of 2021, which he described as ‘claw lightning and claw thunder’, would be completed by the autumn of that year. The operation was to cover the whole of Avaşîn as well as large parts of Zap and Metîna. The attack, as he said, was to be as swift as ‘lightning and thunder’ and the planned objective had to be achieved as quickly as possible. To this end, the Turkish state received both the approval and the support of international and some regional powers. In particular, it secured all kinds of support from NATO. The four-day attack on Gare took place from 10 to 14 February 2021. The operation announced by Erdoğan a few days earlier with the words ‘I will announce good news in the next few days’ ended in a fiasco. Therefore, another attack was launched as plan B. The defeat of Gare would be a topic in itself, so I will only briefly remind you of that, because we cannot fully understand the situation if we do not include the four-day attack in the picture. So, the current war is the continuation of the attack on Gare.

They were met with surprises from the guerrillas

On 23 and 24 May 2021, the Turkish army began to move into the region at lightning speed from the peaks of Avaşîn, where they had previously landed with helicopters. Fierce fighting ensued until 1 June 2021, and eventually the Turkish troops had to retreat to the peaks where they had previously been dropped off just as quickly. As Hulusi Akar said, their aim was to advance quickly and complete the operation by the autumn. The aim was to advance as far as Qandil. The invasion troops, who advanced quickly, were in for a nasty surprise. A few days later, Hulusi Akar had to say: ‘The terrain is too steep, the helicopters can’t find a place to land.’ The guerrillas did not suffer losses from the heavy bombardment as they had hoped and did not give up their positions and the terrain. Moreover, they began to go on the offensive themselves and inflict heavy blows on the occupying forces. The Turkish strategists had not reckoned with this situation.

KDP comes to the rescue

When the Turkish army withdrew from Avaşîn on 1 June 2021, the KDP immediately came to the rescue and sent a military convoy with armoured vehicles and heavy equipment to Metîna on 5 June. Clashes broke out when the KDP units in Metîna attempted to take action against the guerrillas in the war tunnels in the Çarçel region. After the clashes and the provocation they started, the Turkish state began to land troops in Avaşîn again on 7 June 2021 without wasting any time. The KDP then established three separate fortresses in Çarçel. The guerrilla forces there were forced to abandon some of the war tunnels they had built in order to avoid an intra-Kurdish confrontation. On 9, 10 and 11 September 2023, the Turkish army landed troops in the bases established by the KDP in Çarçel. These bases still serve as a command centre for the ongoing attacks in Metîna. The Turkish army ended its invasion attacks, which began in early 2021, by withdrawing from many areas in Avaşîn, Zap and Metîna at the end of the year and postponed its continuation until 2022.

A new offensive called ‘Claw Lock’

The Turkish occupying state announced a new offensive, this time under the name ‘Claw Lock’. This new name already showed the army’s diminishing prospects of success. After 14 April 2022, the air attacks were intensified, and on the evening of 17 April 2022, helicopters began landing troops on almost all the peaks in the east of the Zap. From 17 April to 24 May, the fiercest battle in the history of Kurdistan took place.

The guerrillas had expected such an all-out invasion attack and used every opportunity accordingly. The preparations, the new forms of guerrilla action and the tactics used baffled the Turkish army. Neither armed drones nor F16 fighter jets were able to prevent Turkish helicopters from being shot down or hit. The Turkish army had to evacuate its dead and wounded in Şîladizê from the combat zone with the help of the KDP. Particularly in the Kuro Jahro area, the dead and wounded soldiers began to be transported away on mules, as the helicopters could no longer approach.

On 24 May, the guerrillas dealt a fatal blow to the Turkish army. Revolutionary operations were carried out in the Kuro Jahro and Cehennem areas. Now it was the guerrilla forces who struck like lightning and with deadly force. The losses suffered by the Turkish army in these revolutionary operations could no longer be concealed.

Turkish attack expanded

Unrest spread within the command staff of the Turkish army. Hulusi Akar, who arrived at the border on the same day, gave the order to continue after a meeting with the command. He also extended the attack to some areas in the west of Zap and Metîna in order to eliminate the uncertainty in the leadership and show the guerrillas his determination. Hulusi Akar must have believed that the systematic use of chemical weapons and unconventional bombs would certainly produce results, as he said in several statements: ‘We will complete this task and achieve this lock by autumn.’ The guerrillas resisted and fought with superhuman will. They resisted relentlessly against all kinds of heavy bombardment, chemical weapons and unconventional bombs.

The calculation did not work out

The Turkish army was in dire straits. Their calculations did not work out; government representatives travelled to the borderline almost weekly. Providing the soldiers left behind in the steep terrain and on the peaks with supplies and evacuating the wounded was now a problem in itself. Dozens of helicopters were hit and shot down. In addition, images of the bodies of soldiers killed by the guerrillas were made public. In this way, the false stories of heroism told every day by the special war media were cancelled out. Finally, the autumn and winter months arrived, and here, too, they had miscalculated. The Turkish army had to retreat headlong in many places to save themselves from the deadly blows of the guerrillas.

Time runs out until October 2023

The Turkish army began its offensive in 2023 later than in previous years. Due to the earthquakes in February and the subsequent election campaign, as well as the changes at command level, the invasion attack only began in the middle of the year. Initially, troops were deployed in the places from which they had been forced to withdraw the previous year. The decisive date was the renewed air landing of troops in Girê Cûdî on 20 July. In the meantime, the Turkish army was under great pressure, as it had to declare victory by October. It was unable to overcome the guerrilla obstacle and suffered one setback after another within a month. The Turkish army saw it as a way out to quietly replace the command structure. On 9 September, it then began to land troops in Amediyê, from where it had to withdraw again. Troops were also airdropped in the Çarçel area in Metîna, where the KDP had been building roads and fortresses since 5 June 2021. The main difference was that the troops airdropped directly on the bases that the KDP had built in these areas in previous years and that they were also transported by the KDP via the roads it had built. At the same time, the transport of armoured vehicles and construction machinery was increased with the help of the KDP.

Despite the KDP, the heavy losses continued

This was a great relief for the Turkish army, as the guerrilla forces often shot down or destroyed helicopters during attacks and especially when landing troops. It wanted to utilise this advantage that the KDP offered. The Turkish army therefore decided not to withdraw from the Amedîyê and Girê Cûdî areas in the winter, unlike in previous years. To this end, it established bases with the support of the KDP and began to create a security line around these military bases. In order to reach the peaks where the Turkish army was positioned, two or three KDP security lines had to be crossed. Despite all this, the guerrillas carried out systematically coordinated actions and revolutionary operations during the autumn and winter months, which were made public in every detail in the form of video footage and documentation. It thus became clear that the strategy created by the Turkish state with the help of the KDP had also collapsed.

A bitter and ordinary centenary celebration

Erdoğan’s dreams of raising a flag in Qandil at the beginning of the second century of the Republic and becoming the second Atatürk were shattered, and the victory parade planned with pomp and circumstances was replaced by a bitter and ordinary ceremony. Interestingly, it was not the MHP, the most important partner of the Erdoğan regime, that showed loyalty. It was the KDP that demonstrated its allegiance to the regime in Ankara, with Nechirvan Barzani attending a reception organised in Hewlêr (Erbil) to celebrate the centenary of the founding of the Turkish Republic and cutting the cake. This was an important message to Erdogan, saying: ‘Don’t give up, we are with you, we can still make it.’

AKP, MHP and KDP share a common destiny

The AKP/MHP regime and the KDP are a kind of community of fate, and they are politically and economically dependent on each other at the same time. While the fascist AKP/MHP regime, which was built on the destruction of the Kurds, crashed into the guerrilla resistance with full force and suffered severe damage, the Barzanî clan and its KDP are now unmasked in the middle of this war. The current situation is due to the resistance of the guerrillas. While the guerrillas are fighting, the fascist AKP/MHP regime is increasingly crumbling. With this progressive collapse, the KDP panicked more and more, as the end of Turkish fascism also eroded its basis of existence and its true face became more and more apparent. The guerrillas were officially declared the common enemy. The KDP must do everything in its power to avert the fate of the AKP/MHP regime, which is also its own. It is the executor of a system that was built on the basis of a genocide against the Kurdish people a hundred years ago. It endeavours to continue the policy of genocide and to profit from it, which is why it persistently clings to this status quo.

The guerrillas overcame the KDP’s security barriers

The Turkish army, whose strategy based on supporting the KDP also collapsed, gradually reached a dead end. One such problem was that if they wanted to hold a main peak, they also had to control several secondary peaks in the vicinity to prevent attacks on the main peak. But to prevent attacks, other peaks must also be held and so on. So, the Turkish army was faced with a situation that offered new surprises every day. They therefore asked the KDP for help. However, the guerrilla forces skillfully overcame all the KDP’s security barriers and managed to infiltrate, attack and eliminate Turkish army positions. Now the situation has become even more untenable for the Turkish army, which has quickly deployed troops in many areas that it is unable to protect. The guerrillas have mastered all dimensions of the terrain and are developing ever more deadly tactics that are in no way comparable to those of previous years. For example, air strikes, revolutionary operations, coordinated guerrilla actions and the mastery of military weaponry are becoming increasingly sophisticated, and so, of course, are the tactics of the war tunnels. Just how deadly the guerrillas’ new tactics have become in the last two years can be seen from the statements made by Turkish state representatives.

NATO’s support and Iraq’s collaboration

After its historic defeat, Turkey once again approached the USA and NATO for help. It invoked Article 105 of NATO. The USA and NATO thus forced the Iraqi central government to co-operate with the Turkish state without any basis in international law. The KDP had already been actively cooperating with the Turkish state, but in the new situation they have involved the Iraqi central government and, of course, started to reinforce new ammunition and war technology.

The state produces crimes and exploits society

If we look at the past hundred years, the Kemalist regime that was built on Kurdish genocide could not break the will of the Kurdish people and their determination to resist despite all their massacres. The state created a deep-rooted hostility towards the Kurds and a racist mob that could be mobilised at any time. This situation gradually became a magic key for the ruling cliques to benefit from the blessings of the state and remain in power. Those who could do nothing else began to occupy the centres of power solely on the basis of hostility towards the Kurds. Erdoğan and his interest partners are among these unqualified and lumpen figures. So, the difference between them and the previous centres of power is that they are of low calibre and do not recognise any humanitarian or moral rules. After 100 years of such a society and state bureaucracy created on the basis of hostility towards the Kurds, Erdoğan fit at the head of this state like tailor-made…

The Kurdish freedom movement could foresee that Erdoğan would end up committing a major massacre of the Kurds in order to maintain his power and establish his own despotic regime. Eventually, Erdoğan began to declare that he was more anti-Kurdish than anyone else. The established fascists began to give him standing ovations, pat him on the back and mobilise all the country’s resources for his triumphal procession. In this way, the state established a special war regime for Erdoğan. The dialogue with the Kurds was suspended and the war escalated in July 2015.

This war has gone through many phases and continues at full intensity. Erdoğan wanted to announce his victory on 29 October 2023. The Kurds put up resistance and this resistance prevented the success of Turkey’s war policy. On the contrary, it reached a major impasse. The other centres of power in the established order began to point the finger at Erdoğan. That is why the Turkish defence minister and Erdoğan are reacting by equating this war with a ‘war of independence’. They say: ‘We are in a war of independence; either you are on our side or on the side of the enemy.’ The Turkish state, through its centuries-long policy of genocide against the Kurds, has reached a point where it has turned into a criminal machine and a monster that is eating up society. We can best see this concrete situation in the results of the war.

The balance sheet of the past four years

The figures for the last four years in particular give a clear picture of how the Turkish army is failing in this war and struggling in this quagmire.

* From January 2021 to 30 July 2024, the Turkish army carried out 9,949 airstrikes by F-16 fighter jets.

* Combat helicopters, howitzers, mortars and kamikaze drones attacked 6,745 times.

* Tactical nuclear weapons were used eleven times and unconventional bombs and chemical weapons 5,284 times.

* A total of 21,953 bombardments were carried out in 31 months.

* From July 2015 to 31 December 2020, the Turkish army carried out 2,856 airstrikes and 3,388 ground attacks with mortars and howitzers.

* From 30 July 2015 to 30 July 2024, a total of 28,197 bombardments were carried out.

* In just nine years, i.e. from July 2015 to 30 July 2024, a total of 12 million tonnes of bombs and 23 million tonnes of ammunition and munitions were used.

In the light of this data, it becomes clear how the Turkish army is wearing itself out on the battlefield. When you look at the guerrillas attacking the Turkish army with ever new innovations on the ground and from the air, you can only speak of a genuine military revolution and invincibility.